- Although Jeremy Green said in his column for ESPN, Jacksonville can control the clock by running the ball; the Patriots have come out victorious in the five games time of possession was not on their side – Dolphins (twice), Colts, Ravens and Steelers.
Green states “teams that can run the ball don’t get blown out.” Hey Green tell that to the Steelers! In the Steelers-Patriots game, Pittsburgh dominated time of possession (Steelers 34:43, Patriots 25:17) but still lost in a blowout, 34-13.
Time of Possession figures in those five games:
October 21 @ Miami
DOLPHINS – 35:05
PATRIOTS – 24:55
November 4 @ Indianapolis
COLTS – 30:16
PATRIOTS – 29:44
December 3 @ Baltimore
RAVENS – 32:54
PATRIOTS – 27:06
December 9 Pittsburgh
STEELERS – 34:43
PATRIOTS – 25:17
December 23 Miami
DOLPHINS – 31:44
PATRIOTS – 28:16
- The Bend but don’t Break Defense: The Patriots defense is not overrated. Yes it is true they have given up more than 100 yards to Joseph Addai and Willis McGahee but did they give up more points than Patriots offense? No. The Pats would rather give up the four or five yard run plays than get beat on the big 40-50 yard pass play. If you noticed this year, the Patriots rarely got beat on the big plays.
- The Patriots will come out with a five-wide, two-minute style offense in the beginning of the game. And who is better at the two-minute offense than Tom Brady? In the third quarter of the Wild Card game, when Ben Roethlisberger came out five-wide, he picked apart the weakest part of the Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars poor secondary against the Patriots wide receiver corps that scored over 500 points this season. The Pats receivers have a huge edge here.
- Getting out to big lead first. The Jaguars are not a come-from-behind team. If the Patriots come out in the two-minute offense and five wide, they WILL score on their first drive of the day. The five-wide formation will confuse the Jacksonville defense because they have to watch-out for not only Randy Moss but Wes Welker as well. If the Jaguars choose to double-team Moss it will leave Welker or Kevin Faulk open over the middle for an easy completion plus additional yards. If the Jaguars chose to go with single cover on Moss with additional help in the back, then they are taking a big risk because Moss can still beat the corners and the safeties.
- Ellis Hobbs will come up big. Hobbs has always been regarded as the weaker of the two cornerbacks. But is he really weak or do we just think so because Asante Samuel is so good? David Garrard is not going to throw, when he does throw, in the direction of Samuel. He is going to throw towards Hobbs. This will give Hobbs the chance to make some key plays. I have a feeling we are going to see either a key strip or interception out of Hobbs that will lead to a Patriots touchdown.
- The Pats front seven is better than the Jaguars front seven. The Patriots go with a 3-4 style defense while Jacksonville goes with the usual 4-3. For a big guy, nose tackle Vince Wilfork (who’s wallet is slightly lighter these days) has the speed and quickness to get to Garrard and make him throw under duress with greater chances of a turnover. Even though the linebackers are aging, Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi are playing like they did when they were 25. Seau looks to have a new life in him and Bruschi is still the captain of the defense.
- The Patriots don’t wear those stupid captains’ patches on their jerseys. If you look closely none of the Patriots captains wear them. You do not see one of Bruschi, Brady, Faulk, Warren, Harrison, Izzo or any other Patriots captain. Those patches mean nothing except for singling out the players which is not in the Patriots’ M.O.
You heard it here: the Patriots will beat the Jaguars by at least 10-points.
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